Agarwood Market Weekly: Pre-Exhibition Stocking Window Opens, Middle East Oud Gift Demand Heats Up

Agarwood Market Weekly: Pre-Exhibition Stocking Window Opens, Middle East Oud Gift Demand Heats Up

I. Key Data This Week

• **Exhibition countdown**: The 3rd "Tianxiang Guose" Agarwood & Huanghuali International Trade Fair is about 4 weeks away (November 21-24, Haikou), and production areas and traders are shifting into a rhythm of **stocking and matchmaking preparation**.
• **Middle East buying delegation**: More than 300 Middle East buyers have confirmed group participation, expected to boost gift and collectible-grade demand for Hainan agarwood and qinan, with inquiries rising for Oud essential oil, carved pieces, and bead strings.
• **Benchmark reference**: In early October at China Guardian Hong Kong autumn auctions, a piece of Vietnamese raw-resin qinan sold for over HKD 15 million, continuing to provide a scarcity premium anchor for top-tier raw materials.

II. Trend Assessment

| Category | Short-term trend | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Hainan agarwood raw material (bulk) | Firm to slightly strong | Exhibition-season stocking + Middle East expectations, inquiry volume rising moderately |
| Qinan / Ki Nam (collectible grade) | Strong premium | Auction benchmark effect continues, premium pieces priced individually |
| Oud essential oil / gift sets | Demand heating up | Seasonal gifting and religious-occasion rigid demand from Middle East buyers |
| Ordinary incense sticks / powder | Stable under pressure | Ample capacity, homogeneous competition, price-sensitive |
| Sinking-grade bead strings / carved pieces | Diverging | Premium for good material and fine craftsmanship; ordinary goods discounted to clear inventory |

III. Operational Recommendations

• **Buy side**: The next 2-3 weeks are the final stocking window before the exhibition; prioritize securing first-hand supply from Hainan and Dianbai along with testing certificates (such as the ZGC series) to avoid premium pricing closer to the show.
• **Sell side**: For Middle East buyers, prepare Arabic product descriptions, direct WhatsApp contact, and mailable sample packs; the English /en and Arabic /ar versions should simultaneously handle overseas inquiries.
• **Risk warning**: Price wars from homogeneous ordinary goods continue; avoid high-level stockpiling of mid- to low-end inventory; exports must pay attention to destination regulations and compliance requirements.

> This article is a market review and assessment, not investment advice; actual transactions are subject to the real market. Auction data are integrated from public information.