Agarwood Industry Update October 2026: Top Qinan Auctioned at HK$15.47M, Hainan Seedling Index Retreats

In October 2026, the agarwood industry advanced on two fronts: record-breaking prices at the collector end and scaled, cost-reducing cultivation at the planting end. On one side, top-grade qinan fetched tens of millions of Hong Kong dollars at auction; on the other, Hainan's main producing areas used policy and title certification to push planting costs down and capacity up. This article reviews the month's four key developments, with a data table and FAQ.

1. Auction Market: Vietnamese Raw-Formation Qinan Mountain Sells for HK$15.477 Million

On October 6, at China Guardian Hong Kong's 2026 Autumn Sale "Guanhua — Scholar's Objects, Elegant Playthings and Classical Furniture," a roughly 2,500-gram (five-jin) Vietnamese raw-formation qinan mountain sold for HK$15.477 million, with the hammer price within the HK$15–18 million estimate range.

Industry observers read this as a sign that bidding for top-grade aromatic material is becoming more rational — no longer blindly chasing highs, yet the hard-currency status of scarce large pieces remains solid. The qinan mountain stands 37 cm tall, with a soft, glutinous texture, slender oil veins and a penetrating coolness; the natural furrows on its surface are seen as the ultimate fusion of aromatic material and scholar's-rock aesthetics.

> Data anchor: According to public reports, in the same month a 1,863-gram qinan ornament in the Japanese market sold for about ¥255 million (roughly RMB 11.3 million including commission), again confirming the scarcity of kilogram-scale intact qinan.

2. Price Index: Hainan Agarwood Seedling Index at 548.36 Points in July

According to monitoring by the Xinhua Index (Xinhua Finance Database), as of July 2026 the Hainan Agarwood Seedling Price Index stood at 548.36 points, down 285.46 points (a drop of 34.24%) from the previous period, and down 451.64 points (45.16%) from the base period. Average prices of major varieties:

| Variety | July avg. price (CNY/plant) | vs. previous period |
|---|---|---|
| Aquilaria sinensis | 3.60 | −33.33% (−1.80) |
| Red-bone recessed | 15.50 | +4.49% (+0.67) |
| Xiangmai | 14.50 | −7.45% (−1.17) |
| Heartwood oil | 16.75 | −16.25% (−3.25) |
| Sugar-knot | not offered | — |

The pullback in the seedling price index mainly reflects temporary oversupply and the pace of planting expansion — a normal fluctuation in the course of industrialization, and not a signal of finished-material price trends.

3. Policy and Industry: Qiongzhong's "Two Free, Two Guaranteed" and Agarwood Tree Title Certification

Hainan's Qiongzhong Li and Miao Autonomous County took two landmark steps this month:

• **"Two Free, Two Guaranteed" policy**: free full-process technical service + free traceability system and chips + guaranteed resin-formation yield + guaranteed-price purchase. After six years of planting, each tree is guaranteed 500 g of resin formation, purchased in full at a guaranteed price of CNY 0.5/g; at 150 trees per mu, the six-year guaranteed income is CNY 37,500, with a guaranteed net per-mu annual income of about CNY 4,000.
• **Agarwood tree real-estate certificate**: a "one tree, one code, one certificate" system that clarifies ownership and solves industry pain points such as difficult title confirmation, traceability and trading. After three years of cultivation and aroma induction, trees can enter the trading platform for capacity pre-sale.

Qiongzhong now has over 30,000 mu of agarwood under cultivation across 10 towns, building a full industrial chain from seedlings and planting to deep processing and trading.

4. Trade Breakthrough: Qiongshan Agarwood Opens the Middle East Market

According to China News Service, Middle Eastern merchants visited the Hainan Agarwood and Jiangzhenxiang R&D Industrial Park in Yunlong Town, Qiongshan District, Haikou. As early as January this year, the park reached a 2-ton agarwood raw-material procurement cooperation with Saudi Arabia, marking Qiongshan agarwood's "zero breakthrough" in the Middle East. This year Qiongshan plans to add 400 mu of agarwood planting, building a trinity demonstration zone integrating germplasm protection, science-education tourism and wellness retreats.

Key Data at a Glance

• **Auction**: Vietnamese raw-formation qinan mountain, HK$15.477 million (China Guardian Hong Kong 2026 Autumn Sale, 10/6)
• **Index**: Hainan Agarwood Seedling Price Index 548.36 points (Xinhua Index, 2026/7)
• **Policy**: Qiongzhong "Two Free, Two Guaranteed" — 500 g guaranteed resin per tree over 6 years, guaranteed purchase at CNY 0.5/g
• **Title**: Qiongzhong issues first agarwood tree real-estate certificates, "one tree, one code, one certificate"
• **Trade**: Qiongshan agarwood, 2-ton raw-material purchase with Saudi Arabia (2026/1)

FAQ

Q1: Does the fall in the seedling price index mean agarwood is losing value?
No. Seedling prices reflect the "sapling" stage and are heavily influenced by the pace of planting expansion; finished material — especially wild and qinan-grade large pieces — remains structurally scarce due to resource depletion, and its price system is not synchronized with the seedling end.

Q2: Why can qinan fetch tens of millions?
Qinan is a special variant of agarwood that requires, simultaneously, an injured tree, a specific fungal infection, unique soil and water, and decades of aging — the trade says "ten agarwood yield one qinan." Intact large pieces are extremely rare, with irreplaceable aroma profiles, hence their hard-currency status at auction.

Q3: Will Hainan's expanded planting make agarwood "cheap"?
Scaled planting mainly lowers the cost of entry-level artificially induced products (e.g., hundred-yuan qinan bracelets), making them affordable to more people. But wild, sinking-grade and qinan-grade old material stays expensive due to depletion, so the market shows "polarization."

> Data sources: Xinhua Index / Xinhua Finance Database, China News Service, Nanhai Net, Artron, China Guardian Hong Kong, Hainan Daily. (This is an industry briefing; prices and policies are subject to official releases and do not constitute trading advice.)

> Further reading: For a systematic understanding of how agarwood forms, see "Agarwood Resin Formation Principles and Artificial Induction Techniques"; to learn how to identify genuine qinan, see "Six Types of Fake Agarwood" and "In-Depth on Agarwood Oil Soaking and Injection." Fiction lovers may enjoy the serial "Ten Years of Agarwood."